Aphria Inc (APHA): my final post before merger 😮‍💨🥦🚀🚀🚀

Hello, some of you might know me from my initial post before new year and my follow-up post two weeks later. I suggest you guys read those first, because I won't repeat earlier points I've made in other posts. I'm here to give you guys a final Aphria headsup before merger. I won't post again before merger, because I think this is the final moment to buy into APHA before merger at a reasonable price. Next post will be about gains after merger.

Introduction (another look back)

Well, well, well. I have to take you guys back to the beginning. After a long time lurking, the Aphria posts were my first DD posts on this subreddit. What a journey that has been. I have to remind you guys that before this post by u/WatAb0utB0b after they acquired Sweetwater, basically nobody on this sub was talking about Aphria. Then I made my post after the merger announcement, still almost nobody else was talking about it and I was laughed at (again a shout-out to the guy that advised me to buy an Xbox instead of APHA). When people saw the gains come in after the senate turned blue and I made my follow-up post, some people finally took notice (although still not a lot). And here we are right at this very moment, the entire subreddit is currently talking about it.

I know my DD probably wasn't the most best/detailled you guys will ever read. But I'd still like to think that my initial post inspired some others to buy APHA or do their own DD. I'd like to imagine some dude YOLO'd his life savings into it when he read my post and that person is sitting in Hawaii right now sipping on some coconut milk, getting his cock sucked by a hooker named Stacy and enjoying his life. That feeling is exactly why I am writing this last DD post for you retards right now. Hopefully everyone reading this post will listen to me now and I can make some more of you autists rich.

There's no denying it: Cannabis market heading back to 2018 levels

I told you guys before, once the good news rally begins then we were going to head for the moon because of the volatility of cannabis stocks. This is exactly what happened. Cannabis will undoubtedly be federally

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👤︎ u/Mattras7
📅︎ Feb 10 2021
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Aphria/Tilray Merger

Second time posting this. Made it last night but other than a collab between CGC and APHA, news about the merger seems to be the same this morning.

This is my first DD so please bare with me in case I set something up wrong; I'm happy to edit if so but this took me a while to gather.

I just joined this sub about two weeks ago amidst the GME hype. I've been investing for a few years now ever since the Tilray IPO at $17. Bought, sold, and reinvested consistently (pulling out my principal each time) right up through the almost $300 peak and backed out. I left Tilray alone for a while until recently when the news regarding the merger with Aphria started popping up because I actually love Aphria and I've owned it for a while now, so I wanted to post some DD regarding the merger. Hope this helps some of you.

For the business: Reverse merger is taking place where Aphria is absorbing Tilray and will own 63% of the company, continuing to use the name Tilray due to better brand recognition and its nearly eponymous representation of the cannabis market. Aphria has a strong presence in Germany which is the only European country with medical marijuana, so Aphria has an advantage in that sector for if/when other European nations start following suit. With both Aphria's and Tilray's international relations along with slowly migrating into the US they may grow into the largest cannabis company worldwide just in terms of revenue.

Over the previous 12 months, Aphria put up $443 million USD in revenue compared to Canopy Growth's $377m USD. Tilray has put up $201m USD in the last 12 months, and which combined with Aphria is $644m USD, or markedly higher than the $377m USD posted by the "industry standard," Canopy Growth. (I don't hate on Canopy as a company whatsoever I just think they're overvalued and their stock should not be in the $40s).

Stats from the merger indicated a $685 million annual revenue, adjusted for combined sales, and the company itself, named Tilray, will have a roughly $3.5 billion valuation.

Also, many forget that Tilray has a business partnership with Anheuser-Busch and Aphria owns the craft beer company SweetWater. (Which, personally, is fucking delicious.)

For the shareholder: Each Aphria share will convert to 0.8381 shares of Tilray. As of today (Monday, 02/08/21) the closing price of Tilray was $30.09 and the price of Aphria was $18.98. In accordance to the 1 : .8381 conversion rate, the implied price of Aphria is $25.22, which ha

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📅︎ Feb 09 2021
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Tilray CEO on Grow Deal, Aphria Merger, Pot Legalization msn.com/en-gb/money/other…
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📅︎ Feb 09 2021
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APHA reverse merger w/ TLRY - let math make you money

Did you miss out on all the pot stock hype today? Good news there is still a great sleeper play out there . This has been discussed in r/stocks and here in WSB weeks and it’s simple merger math.

Buy APHA not TLRY. Why? Because APHA will convert to TLRY shares for a profit at a .838 to one. In other words 100 shares of APHA will convert to 83.8 TLRY shares. One TLRY share at close was $63.80 and one APHA only $26.34.

83% of $63.80 is $53.46.

APHA is trading at a $28 per share discount!

APHA is a great company and actually the one buying TLRY (Reverse merger) the two are poised to do very well with legalization and the tickers will switch in the 2Q of This year.

https://aphriainc.com/tilray-inc-arrangement-faqs/

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SPAC Merger status update as of 2/6/21. Orange highlights = new items since last week. Green highlights = merger meetings this week - INAQ 2/9, MCAC 2/9, PANA 2/9, SBE 2/11, LGVW 2/12
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👤︎ u/dwjhnsn3
📅︎ Feb 06 2021
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Aphria (APHA) Merger with TLRY Possibly Creating Arbitrage Opportunity

Merger between APHA and TLRY finalizes in Q2 of 2021 per company disclosures. Shareholders of APHA will convert their shares to TLRY stock at .8381 per share. New Company will keep TLRY name and stock symbol.

Here is the math as of last nights close

10 shares of AHPA @$16.60 = $166.00 invested

ONCE MERGER COMPLETED APHA SHARES CONVERT TO TLRY SHARES AT THE .8381 RATIO:

10 X .8381 = 8.381shares of TLRY which closed yesterday at $26.60 per share...

10 APHA x .8381 = 8.381 shares of TLRY @ 26.60 = $222.93 -- that's an additional $57.93 in principal balance invested. A built in buffer against loss or just pure profit.

as long as this spread between the stock remains the value appears to be very significant. Going off of yesterdays close:

Approximate.....

10 shares = $57 additional profit

100 shares = $570 additional profit

1000 shares = $5,700 additional profit

10,000 shares = $57,00 additional profit

If this trend continues there is a built in buffer against loss as well a significant upside if TLRL and APHA keep trending upward and the spread remains the same. I am surprised more people have not jumped on this especially with the news on how US appears to be position cannabis legalization nationally and APHA is one of the first cannabis companies to actually produce a profit at the last earning report in 2020! I am not an investment advisor, but this seems like a great deal to me. Definitely check my math.

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So long as you think TLRY stock is worth $21 after the merger, APHA is worth a buy.

Even if you bought APHA at $29 dollars yesterday, you're going to make $32 a share if the merger goes through at this price, so you might as well hold. The run up yesterday was too quick (remember this stock was at $18 on Monday as well) and I think now that there's been a correction we'll continue the steady runup that we've been seeing the past couple months.

I've been in since $6 and have a cost average of around $12, so I could sell without taking a loss, but fact of the matter is nothing has fundamentally changed. Aphria is still one of the most profitable weed companies out there and they have control over everything from production to distribution in Canada (and soon America and the UK).

Positions: 90 APHA shares (I'm poor as fuck)

Edit: Obligatory 🚀🚀🚀🚀🚀 💎💎💎💎💎

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📅︎ Feb 11 2021
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WSJ Exclusive: Exxon, Chevron CEOs Discussed Merger

This story could definitely have wide ranging impacts within the O&G sector - should be interesting to see how it unfolds:


The chief executives of Exxon XOM -2.65% Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. CVX -4.29% spoke last year about combining the oil giants, according to people familiar with the talks, testing the waters for what could be one of the largest corporate mergers ever.

Chevron Chief Executive Mike Wirth and Exxon CEO Darren Woods spoke shortly after the coronavirus pandemic took hold, decimating oil and gas demand and putting enormous financial strain on both companies, the people said. The discussions were described as preliminary and aren’t ongoing but could come back in the future, the people said.

Such a deal would reunite the two largest descendants of John D. Rockefeller’s Standard Oil monopoly, which was broken up by U.S. regulators in 1911, and reshape the oil industry.

A combined company’s market value could top $350 billion. Exxon has a market value of $190 billion, while Chevron’s is $164 billion. Together, they would likely form the world’s second largest oil company by market capitalization and production, producing about 7 million barrels of oil and gas a day, based on pre-pandemic levels, second only in both measures to Saudi Aramco.

But a merger of the two largest American oil companies could encounter regulatory and antitrust challenges under the Biden administration. President Biden has said climate change is one of the biggest crises the country faces. In October, he said he would push the country to “transition away from the oil industry.” He hasn’t been as vocal about antitrust matters, and the administration has yet to nominate the Justice Department’s head of that division.

One of the people familiar with the talks said the sides may have missed an opportunity to consummate the deal under former President Donald Trump, whose administration was seen as more friendly to the industry.

A handful of sizable oil and gas deals were completed last year, including Chevron’s $5 billion takeover of Noble Energy Inc. and ConocoPhillips ’ roughly $10 billion takeover of Concho Resources Inc., but nothing close to the scale of combining San Ramon, Calif.-based Chevron and Irving, Texas-based Exxon.

Such a deal would be noteworthy in the oil industry, surpassing in size the mega-oil-mergers of the late 1990s and early 2000s, which included the combination of Exxon and Mobil and Chevron and Texaco Inc.

It also could be the

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📅︎ Jan 31 2021
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$TLRY and $APHA Merger Arbitrage

Currently Tilray and Aphria are being mispriced by the market assuming a deal goes through. I see the deal as very likely to happen. The conversion rate for Aphria shares into Tilray shares is 0.8381 which means for every Aphria share you own you get .8381 shares of Tilray. Right now, Tilray is trading around $63 per share. This means that theoretically Aphria should be worth around $52 at the close of the deal. Currently Aphria is trading at a 50% discount. Is the market assuming the deal won’t go through. Is Tilray only going up because of a short squeeze. Seems like a good opportunity for a pair trade at this crazy discount.

Edit: It's clear that a lot of people are very new at trading/investing and don't know what a pair trade is. Do yourself a favor and look it up on google if you don't understand it.

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👤︎ u/rblayzor
📅︎ Feb 10 2021
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Shaq, Lebron, & TikTok's Ex-CEO company JUST announced its $3B merger with Beachbody (Full Retard Mode ACTIVATED)

I'm about go full retard.

Some people involved with this (which is honestly a big part of why I'm about to Forest Gump my ass through Vietnam, across the fucking country, and back home to lose my virginity to a chick with AIDs just to get this thing):

  • Shaq
  • Kevin Mayer, Former TikTok CEO
  • Lebron "hold my dick" James
  • Arnold Schwarzenegger
  • Tom Staggs, former Disney CFO & COO

The announcement just came out. Full version for those of you with actual attention spans.

For those that don't. Here are the highlights:

"Fitness-and-nutrition business the Beachbody Company Group LLC plans to merge with a blank-check company affiliated with former TikTok Chief Executive Kevin Mayer in a deal that values the combined company at nearly $3 billion."

As part of the deal, Myx Fitness LLC, an at-home connected cycling provider, will become part of The Beachbody Company.

Beachbody is expected to generate more than $1.1 billion of revenue this year.

"Beachbody said it plans to use the capital to expand its sales and digital marketing efforts and to enter new geographies"

Other awesome things about this team:

My Basic DD:

The company is well diversified between 3 separate entities. Each with complementary but different offerings. The fitness offering, I think, pairs really well with their roster on the team which (as covered above) is highly experienced in sports and media.

Peloton is due for a competitor. It's a great platform but it's not the solution EVERYONE needs. MYX Fitness' products offer added choice to a marketplace that is foaming at the mouth for more options.

The company has been around for over 20 years which is just a nice reassurance that the biz actual works

Because of how the deal is structured, it appears the company will now be, more than ever, able to expand via acquisitions (they actually mention this in the article) and HEAVY digital marketing spend.

Again, this literally JUST came out like an hour ago.

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👤︎ u/drizzlead
📅︎ Feb 10 2021
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Every $CCIV holder when @LucidMotors Merger is announced...
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📅︎ Feb 07 2021
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Fitness and Nutrition Companies to Combine in $3 Billion SPAC Merger (FRX) wsj.com/articles/fitness-…
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📅︎ Feb 10 2021
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Aphria CFO Explains the Aphria/Tilray Merger share conversion ratio (1 Aphria share -> 0.8381 Tilray share)

My take:

I've seen a lot of confusion recently about the Aphria/Tilray merger and the share conversion ratio of 0.8381 Tilray share for every 1 Aphria share.

A common narrative I've seen in discussions is investors feeling like they're getting "Less shares" or somehow losing money since they'll have a lower number of shares in the end but this is not the case. Remember that Tilray has about 165million outstanding shares and Aphria has 322 million outstanding shares which is almost 2x as much. In short Tilray company + Aphria company are becoming one company (Basically Tilray+Aphria company under the name Tilray)

Imagine this:

0,8381 share of [Tilray company] for every 1 [Aphria company] share

As the following:

0,8381 share of [Tilray+Aphria company] for every 1 [Aphria company] share.


I've included the full explanation by the CFO of Aphria Carl Merton below (Direct copy paste):

Part I – I don’t like the exchange ratio, why wasn’t it flipped?

This question is effectively rooted in the belief that share price is more important than market cap. And closely rooted to the belief that because an investor had a full share before the transaction but will not have a full share after the transaction, they are somehow disadvantaged (multiple investors have emailed us claiming this is the same as taking shares away from them). I know that share price is much easier to find but it isn’t nearly as relevant as market cap. Market cap establishes the value of the company or how big a pie the company is. Share price is just a function of how many pieces of the pie are available, so how big your piece of the pie is.

If two companies are worth $5 billion each and otherwise equal but one company has 5 billion shares and the other company has 100 million shares, that means company #1 has a share price of $1 and company #2 has a share price of $50. Just because company #2’s share price is $50, doesn’t mean that company #1’s share price should be $50 as well and could “moon” to that amount. That would make it worth $250 billion! They are both worth $5 billion.

When one company decides to buy another company with its shares, one of the most important negotiating points is how much dilution is there going to be in the new entity. This is determined by how much of the new company, each of the old company’s shareholders receives. This decision gets made based on several factors providing rough fence posts, including th

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📅︎ Feb 10 2021
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In light of all the mergers, though it would be beneficial to post this again. Credit to u/spiffybarefac
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📅︎ Feb 01 2021
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Israeli Startup REE Said to Plan Merger With 10X Capital SPAC (Ticker VCVC)

(Bloomberg) --

REE Automotive, an electric-vehicle technology startup, has agreed to go public through a merger with 10X Capital Venture Acquisition Corp., a blank-check company, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

A transaction, which features a $300 million private investment in public equity, or PIPE, is set to give the combined entity an enterprise value of about $3.1 billion, said the people. REE’s existing investors will own more than 80% of the combined company, and a deal could be announced as soon as Wednesday, they said.

A REE representative declined to comment and a 10X spokesperson didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment

Update link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-02/israeli-startup-ree-said-to-plan-merger-with-10x-capital-spac

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👤︎ u/neg_equity
📅︎ Feb 02 2021
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Saudi PIF on CNBC - Asked point blank about CCIV x Lucid Merger v.redd.it/0dg9tw1d6pd61
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📅︎ Jan 26 2021
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Aphria/Tilray Merger Arbitrage Opportunity, Plus APHA vs. CGC

Well my fellow degens, I have an interesting one for you. Aphria ($APHA) and Tilray ($TLRY) are merging to create the world’s biggest cannabis company. Close to 1B (874M to be exact) in annualized revenues which will only grow.

Anyways the merger states:

“Under the terms of the Arrangement, the shareholders of Aphria (the “Aphria Shareholders”) will receive 0.8381 shares (the “Exchange Ratio”) of Tilray for each Aphria common share (each, an “Aphria Share”), while holders of Tilray shares (the “Tilray Stockholders”) will continue to hold their Tilray shares (the “Tilray Shares”) with no adjustment to their holdings. Upon the completion of the Arrangement, Aphria Shareholders will own approximately 62 percent of the outstanding Tilray Shares.” Source

This means Aphria should be trading at .8381 of Tilray’s share price. Tilray is at $22.50 x .8381 = $18.86. Aphria should be trading at $18.86, yet it’s only at $13.95. That’s a whopping 34% difference.

Considering Aphria is the stronger company and controls 62% of the combined company, it’s very rare for it to be trading so far away from the merger ratio. I’ve never seen a merger discrepancy like this before. If anything, Aphria should have the premium. Also, Tilray has high short interest so I doubt it will dip as shorts have to cover, it's most likely Aphria should catch up to Tilray's level.

Aphria/Tilray vs. CGC

Now let’s compare Aphria/Tilray to Canopy Growth. Canopy did 135M revenue last quarter which is approximately 540M annualized revenue along with a 96M net loss and a whopping adj. EBITDA loss of negative 85M. Furthermore, Canopy has -190M free cash flow, (Source)

Aphria did 160.5M revenue with Adj EBITDA of 12.6M. This will only increase as their next financials will have SweetWater Brewing on them. Source

Aphria expected to potentially be cash flow positive either this Q or next. “And we continue to work to be free cash flow positive in Q3, all subject to the intensity of COVID-19 restrictions in the markets where we operate. “

Cano

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👤︎ u/arauz7
📅︎ Feb 02 2021
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"VAULT" Update: Following the merger, it will no longer exist leaving Zenimax a wholly owned Microsoft subsidiary.

https://ec.europa.eu/competition/mergers/cases1/20216/m10001_219_3.pdf

News relates to this post:

Zenimax Deal may be reached as soon as February 15th

Right there in black and white.

Don't let anybody tell you that Vault is something it's not.

It's just like I said it was: A standard business practice when dealing with large scale Mergers & Acquisitions as I stated in my post here:

This is fairly normal during large scale M&A for legal purposes to protect the buyer from possible legitations regarding the seller. "The main purpose of a subsidiary merger is to protect the buyer from the liabilities of the target company."

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📅︎ Feb 10 2021
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If the CCIV Lucid Merger doesn’t happen
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👤︎ u/djstatle
📅︎ Jan 30 2021
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SNPR - Volta Merger DD

Hey all, I usually lurk on this sub, but today decided to put together a DD for the SNPR - Volta merger. Feel free to provide any comments and opinions on my DD! I feel that outside opinions and constructive criticism improve my process.

Deal Information:

$1.4 B Pro Forma EV

$300M Pipe

$345 Cash in SNPR Trust

% Ownership of SPAC shareholders: 17%

Overview

Volta installs and operates charging stations in commercial locations. Volta believes they have a predictive algorithm that forecasts future demand locations, allowing them to capitalize on fewer charging locations with higher per-unit profits. Volta operates 3 types of charging stations, the Volta Level 2, the Volta DC Fast, and the Volta tower. Volta currently operates 1602 charging stations, creating $25 M in revenue in 2020. Is this spectacular? No. Does a working product exist? Yes.

Let’s see how this stacks up against the competitors, for this DD I will be using CLII (EVGO), TPGY (EV Box), SBE (Chargepoint), and BLNK (for the data I could find). EVGO, Chargepoint, and BLNK mainly operate in the united states, while EV Box mainly operates in Europe.

Existing Charging Stations and 2020 Revenue

*2020 Expected Revenues, using 9 months of reported data and Q4 earnings expectations (source: SEC edgar and Schwab StreetSmart).

** Simple breakdown aggregating revenues and dividing by what actually makes this company money – the charging units. I know other factors play into revenue.

Off the bat, SNPR has a long way to go in terms of installing stations, yet it stands out in terms of revenues on a per-unit basis. Turns out, this is one of their selling points. When I’m looking at these companies, I try and find what separates them from the rest. How is this company’s business model any different from the other, more established companies that already make charging stations? Unlike other charging companies, Volta does not manufacture their charging stations. This model may contribute to lower initial capital commitments and less set up time. Also unlike other charging companies, Volta wants to tap into 3 separate markets to create revenue – charging, data collection and sales, and advertising/marketing.

Revenue-

Charging – Volta gets customers “in the door” by offering 15 minutes of free charging. After that, they charge on a per kWh b

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👤︎ u/robe-
📅︎ Feb 08 2021
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$BWAC Merger News

The CEO stated recently that positive news regarding a target is coming very soon. See interview here https://youtu.be/CTkX0ThcHBo

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📅︎ Feb 08 2021
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I went YOLO on TLRY back in September, maxed out my credit cards when it dropped below $5 to buy all I could literally. The TLRY/APHA merger will be the #1 cannabis juggernaut in the world and TLRY will hit $50 by the summer and $100 by next year DIAMOND FUCKING HANDS!!!! reddit.com/gallery/lbagma
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👤︎ u/buytilray
📅︎ Feb 03 2021
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SIR_JACK_A_LOT's next move: ALL in STIC -> BARK merger (BarkBox -- bitches love spoiling their dogs)

TLDR: Going all in on STIC, going to reverse merger with BarkBox in Q1/Q2 and be the next 10-bagger in the BECKY fund

Why? Bitches love spoiling their dogs, fucking look at their website and instagram, their DTC marketing is fucking on point

Buzzwords: Pets. E-commerce. Subscription. SPAC. Bitches.

DD

  • Pandemic-fueled rise in pet adoptions blew up CHWY this year, and Barkbox will profit here as well
  • It's a subscription-business meaning lit 2020 == strong recurring revenue into 2021+
  • Diversified product line from boxes to toys to food via e-commerce AND in 23,000 retail locations including Amazon
  • CEO of the SPAC, Joanna Coles, is a MILF/GILF who is on the boards of SNAP and SONOS and knows what millenials love to spend their stimulus money on
  • President/COO of the SPAC, Jon Ledecky, probably does all the real financial shit and already helped launch XL Fleet via a SPAC, which has already mooned
  • If you search for "STIC" on reddit: there's only 1 other post about it from yesterday so this is extremely early and profitable https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/search?q=stic&restrict_sr=1
  • Stocktwits follower count growing from 400 yesterday to 756 today, you're finally hearing about a SPAC early enough, you're welcome https://stocktwits.com/symbol/STIC

Numbers

  • $1.6 billion deal
  • $369 (nice) million in revenue for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2021
  • 1.1M active subscriptions up 58% y/y
  • 95% monthly retention with INCREASING gross profit and DECREASING acquisition costs
  • 65% y/y net revenue growth
  • 60% gross margin

Appendix

[Go to the fucking dog park and ask bitches about BarkBox, everyone is throwing money at their pandemic puppies

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📅︎ Dec 23 2020
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Klobuchar Pitches Antitrust Reform for ‘Too Big to Fix’ Mergers bloomberg.com/news/articl…
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📅︎ Feb 04 2021
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The Aphria/Tilray Merger Will Make The Combined Entity A Major European Cannabis Market Participant technical420.com/cannabis…
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👤︎ u/seebz69
📅︎ Jan 29 2021
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DD: Aphria (APHA) and Tilray (TLRY) upcoming merger

This is my first ever DD, so I hope it sucks less than most. Possible bonus tendies with this play.

You have most likely read about this one already, but let me share with you all the details that I’ve uncovered so far. The reefer stocks Aphria (APHA) and Tilray (TLRY) are merging which will create the one of the largest wacky tobacky companies in the world, if not the largest. After the merger, the name Tilray will be the one to continue.

Aphria’s sales have dropped 4% per quarter for the last 4 quarters, and Tilray’s sales have been flat for a couple years .. but their sales and market strength are not what makes this merger an interesting play for me.

Under the terms of the merger, Aphria shares will convert into 0.8381 Tilray shares. So for each APHA share you own, you will then own 0.8381 TLRY shares. To put it in very easy to see terms, let’s use fake numbers. Say APHA is $50 and TLRY is $100. If you own 1 APHA, after the merger you will own 1 TLRY worth $83.81. It’s important to note that Tilray shareholders will see no adjustment to their holdings, this is a one-way adjustment.

Right now, APHA is $16.83 and TLRY is $26.90. If the merger happened today, your 1 APHA share would convert into 1 TLRY share at $22.54. This is an instant 26% increase. The way you'd see this in Robinhood/whatever is with fractional shares. You'd see 0.8381 TLRY shares at $26.90 in your portfolio.

The merger is scheduled for Q2 2021, with some people throwing around the late-April to early-May range, as was heard on a recent earnings call. Mergers this size only fall through ~10% of the time.

As we approach the merger date, I fully expect to see APHA prices increase faster than TLRY because this strategy will catch on. As long as the APHA price stays 16.2% below the TLRY price you will see free money. The risk is if APHA increases too much, you will actually lose money from your APHA shares after the conversion.

One week ago on Jan 29, APHA was $12.18 and TLRY was $18.10, so APHA was 33% below TLRY. Today APHA is $16.91 and TLRY is 26.53, a 34% difference. Will the gap close to the point of APHA shares dropping in price post merger? Who knows. Probably not, though. But if it does, you wouldn’t necessarily *lose* money either, rather your realized gains would be lessened by however much APHA is higher than the 0.8381 conversion. For example, let’s say APHA reached $90 while TLRY is $100. After merger, you’d have 1 TLRY at $83.81 (in reality 0.8381 TLRY shar

... keep reading on reddit ➡

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👤︎ u/aiolyfe
📅︎ Feb 05 2021
🚨︎ report
CCIV is going to $100 on merger news and probably $500+ within a year. This is potential life changing stock. I will double position on DA news.
👍︎ 98
📰︎ r/CCIV
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👤︎ u/knotty62
📅︎ Feb 07 2021
🚨︎ report
CCIV Thoughts: Why Lucid merger will be announced in Q1 (Feb. or March)

Why the merger with Lucid is going to be announced in Q1 (Feb. or March)

Lucid has been on an extremely obvious, almost purposefully obvious, media blitz. TV campaigns, interviews with major media outlets, rumor "leaks". Those 24/7 CNBC Lucid Motors commercials you see? Guess what, they cost a ton of money.

If Lucid didn't expect a massive cash infusion right now ahead of rolling out their initial vehicle, the Lucid Air Dream, this spring, do you think they would burn through mountains of cash on TV commercials? No. They would be efficient, pragmatic, and conservative with their capital spend and allocate towards core operations for the Dream rollout. You know why that's not what they're doing? Because they know they're about to receive a $3 billion+ capital infusion from CCIV (SPAC + PIPE).

Why buying now, even at Friday's closing price, still makes sense if you think the deal is on

This question gets asked hundreds of times a week here. "Should I buy now?", "Is it too late?", "Does averaging up make sense?". If you think the deal with Lucid is in full motion and only a matter of when, not if -- the answer is yes. Buy now. Why? Read on.

I put my entire portfolio into CCIV below $13 because I immediately recognized the dynamics at play with this trade. Potential upside of several multiples (2x+) on my capital, compared to a maximum downside of 20% - 30%, and more likely I could get out of the trade with even less hemorrhaging.

What's happening now and why is it still ok to buy? Believe it or not, there is still a floor here. That floor just keeps getting shifted up. When I got into the trade, I was thinking upside of 2x-3x, and right now for new entrants, unbelievably I think that is still possible. Of course, your downside is no longer protected by the NAV floor, but is now supported by the massive daily volume and the dip buyers. There is simply too much momentum in this trade to fear a catastrophic 30% or 40% drawdown. The only way this trade goes massively south is if it leaks that talks are off.

If you, like the rest of the world, think it's "deal on", you actually have pretty incredible price support with the momentum in this name. So the trade dynamics that were there at $12-$13 are still there now: relatively stable downside protection, and yes, you can still enjoy the very good upside.

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📰︎ r/SPACs
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📅︎ Feb 06 2021
🚨︎ report
Me Waiting for Merger News while WEEDS STOCKs... MULTIPLE WEED Stocks have +50 , +100% Days
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📰︎ r/CCIV
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👤︎ u/wtennelle
📅︎ Feb 10 2021
🚨︎ report
Clearing House Apex Is Said in Merger Talks With Ledecky SPAC (Ticker NSTB)

(Bloomberg) --

Apex Clearing Corp., a securities custody and clearing firm, is in talks to go public through a merger with a blank-check company backed by John Ledecky, co-owner of the National Hockey League’s New York Islanders.

The merger would value Apex and Northern Star Investment Corp. II at as much as $5 billion, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the information is private.

Deliberations are ongoing and details of the transaction with the special purpose acquisition company, or SPAC, may change, the people said. Representatives for Apex Clearing and Northern Star didn’t immediately respond to requests for comment.

Apex Clearing, owned by financial technology firm Peak6, was the clearing house for Robinhood Markets Inc. before it launched its in-house platform in 2018, the trading app’s website shows.

Edit link: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-12/clearing-house-apex-is-said-in-merger-talks-with-ledecky-spac

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👤︎ u/neg_equity
📅︎ Feb 12 2021
🚨︎ report
In case you’re wondering why $CCIV is currently up over 10% in AH and broke a new ATH too... well it seems there is a new Bloomberg Terminal update looming around which showcases some changes that lead to more “merger imminent” vibes😊
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📰︎ r/CCIV
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👤︎ u/91baby
📅︎ Feb 11 2021
🚨︎ report
$Snca looking good. The merger is guaranteed.

$SNCA anyone looking for a high potential stock to invest in should check this out. SNCA is about to merge with LBS. LBS has a phase 3 drug that has FDA fast track designation. Do some research on SNCA and decide if you want to invest in it.

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📰︎ r/stocks
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📅︎ Jan 27 2021
🚨︎ report
GIK merger timeline from Lighting eMotors CEO, between March 1 and April 15 twitter.com/timreeser/sta…
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👤︎ u/alexl1994
📅︎ Feb 06 2021
🚨︎ report
Guesstimated timeline of merger talk with Lucid

Hi r/CCIV folks,

I've spent a bit of time thinking about a realistic and reasonable timeline for CCIV - Lucid merger.

I know it's impossible to know what's going on from outside, and estimating deal timeline is nearly an impossible job from my experiences running tech M&A deals. Every M&A deal is laughably different.

So here I'm just dumping my ideas about potential timeline as PURE SPECULATION, so please don't take this too seriously!

Assumptions & what we know:

  • January 11 [New]: "Venrock proposed to sell Lucid shares to CCIV" Bloomberg reported on Feb 11.
  • January 11: Bloomberg reported CCIV is in merger talks with Lucid up to $15B valuation
  • January 14: CCIV proposed merger to Lucid on Jan 14, Bloomberg reported on Jan 26
  • January 15: Lucid all-company meeting (rumored but unconfirmed) CEO "planning to go public"
  • January 26: PIF Yasir on CNBC "We evaluate both IPO and SPAC for Lucid. Hopefully we can announce it soon"
  • February 3: Dow Jones reported "CCIV deal with Lucid Motors not imminent, although talks are still ongoing"
  • February 5: Lucid CEO Peter on CNBC "You know I cannot comment on such things. I cannot either confirm or deny [the talk with CCIV]" with that lucid smile.

I'm assuming these are all true and correct in the following estimate.

Potential Timeline & Guesstimated Underlying Events

I suspect January 14 event was a signing of non-binding LOI, after negotiating key LOI terms earlier. In my experiences, communicating to employees without any executed agreements (binding or non-binding) sounds extremely weird. On the other hand, if they signed *binding* documents on that day, such as binding LOI/MOU, they must disclose such material events in regulatory filing so we should have seen something in SEC filing.

Probably, they agreed to enter due diligence process (regarded as a formal M&A process) following the acceptance of the non-binding LOI on Jan 14, and they were expanding deal team and involving broader functions / employees to prepare for the upcoming DD. So it makes sense to give everybody a heads up right after LOI but just vaguely comment like "hey we are planning to go public in coming months" to comply with the NDA in place. This is also to keep other employees from speculating without any knowledge and being confused by external media coverage and buzz.

Non-binding LOI is a high level skeleton of basic deal terms agreed on non-binding basis that typically includes price, merger

... keep reading on reddit ➡

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📰︎ r/CCIV
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👤︎ u/1717t
📅︎ Feb 11 2021
🚨︎ report
GHVI (Gores VI) - Matterport Said to be in Merger Talks with Gores SPAC (Bloomberg)

No link yet, article below (Bloomberg):

Matterport Is Said to Be in Merger Talks With Gores SPAC

Virtual tours software firm to have $2 billion-plus value

A transaction could be announced as soon as next week

(Bloomberg) -- Matterport Inc., a maker of software for virtual walk-throughs of properties, is in advanced talks to list via a blank-check company, according to people familiar with the matter.

A deal with Gores Holdings VI Inc. could be announced as soon as next week, said one of the people, asking not to be identified because the matter is private. The transaction is set to value the combined entity at more than $2 billion, the person said.

A representative for Gores Holdings VI declined to comment. A spokesperson for Matterport, based in Sunnyvale, California, didn’t immediately respond to a request for comment.

Matterport has seen a spike in usage during the pandemic, as people didn’t want to leave their homes to tour apartments or houses in person. Its 3D technology is used in more than 130 countries and by clients including Redfin Corp. and Marriott International Inc., according to its website.

The company’s investors include DCM Ventures and the venture arms of chipmakers Advanced Micro Devices Inc. and Qualcomm Inc., according to PitchBook. It has raised $168 million to date and was valued at $355 million in 2019, PitchBook data shows.

Gores Holdings VI, a special purpose acquisition company backed by private equity firm Gores Group, raised $345 million in an initial public offering in December.

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📰︎ r/SPACs
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📅︎ Feb 05 2021
🚨︎ report
Astra to Become the First Publicly Traded Space Launch Company on NASDAQ via Merger with Holicity (HOL)
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👤︎ u/Whiteork
📅︎ Feb 02 2021
🚨︎ report
SPAC Merger status update as of 1/23/21 (twitter @DJohnson_CPA). Orange highlights = new items since last week. Green highlights = merger meetings this week - NOVS 1/29
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👤︎ u/dwjhnsn3
📅︎ Jan 23 2021
🚨︎ report
CCIV in Roman Numerals=204, 2/04, merger date will be February 4th

It's been right in front of us the whole time

👍︎ 282
📰︎ r/CCIV
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👤︎ u/discst8
📅︎ Feb 01 2021
🚨︎ report
Aggressive Strategy for WSB Denizens Getting Serious Money in SPACs (Especially Best Reverse Mergers)

Disclaimer: I am not a financial advisor. “Doubling your money or more in as little as two weeks” is not a legal guarantee or other certainty. Past performance is not indicative of future performance.

Because of the u/AutoModerator, the original thread used a banned word or two, including in the title itself. This is the cleaned-up version.

OVERVIEW

https://www.reddit.com/r/SPACs/comments/ixjhuz/are_we_in_a_spac_bubble/g67cgse/

There are at least four ways to play SPACs, each corresponding to a SPAC's lifecycle.

The first play is arbitrage. This comes and goes, depending on the stock price of a SPAC unit.

The second play is NAV, which has been posted about by other SPAC denizens. Again, this comes and goes. One risk here is that rising bond yields could lower the NAVs of SPACs without targets.

The third play is the deadline calendar. If we see an excess of SPACs, we could see more and more bad deals. The "SPAC bubble" is mainly in play here.

The fourth and final play applies only to select SPACs.

BLOCKBUSTER EVENTS

https://www.reddit.com/r/spacstreetbets/comments/jf5jy6/a_way_around_spac_saturation_event_spacs/gcgxany/

There are lots of SPACs around these days. There are legitimate concerns about saturation.

All reverse mergers / special purpose acquisition companies (SPACs) are not created equal. Most don't have hype.

Even among those that have hype, there are the regular ones, and then there are SPACs that present more clearly the way around SPAC saturation.

These latter SPACs are the event SPACs, or blockbuster SPACs.

Welcome to the real money-making opportunity in SPAC Land! These blockbuster events are characterized by most of the price movements below, some more fundamental than others.

(#1) LETTER-OF-INTENT (LOI) POP

A letter of intent announcement, or an official rumor, is the lesser of two early announcements.

Hype-based price movement in reaction to this, Price Movement #1, is not necessary for a blockbuster event to unfold. Also, even if this were to happen, a SPAC can be like SPAQ and not become a money-making blockbuster event.

GRAF / VLDR still holds the record for the highest pop.

(#2) DEFINITIVE AGREEMENT (DA) AND THE SPIKE

Certain hype SPACs can spike to at least $20, and their warrants by greater percentages. Should they do so, they could become money-making blockbuster events. Without spikes this high, this Price Movement #2, they will end up like regular hype SPACs such as LCA and

... keep reading on reddit ➡

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👤︎ u/Torlek1
📅︎ Feb 04 2021
🚨︎ report
Rover, the World's Largest Network of Five-Star Pet Sitters and Dog Walkers, Announces Plans to Become a Public Company via a Merger with True Wind Capital's SPAC, Nebula Caravel Acquisition Corp. $NEBC prnewswire.com/news-relea…
👍︎ 42
📰︎ r/SPACs
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👤︎ u/zech_meme
📅︎ Feb 11 2021
🚨︎ report
[Schad] Dolphins poised to be the first defense in 20 years to lead the league in scoring, takeaways, and third down percentage. Also would be the first defense to go from worst to first since the merger. twitter.com/schadjoe/stat…
👍︎ 2k
📰︎ r/nfl
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👤︎ u/dcpains
📅︎ Dec 29 2020
🚨︎ report
Every $CCIV holder when @LucidMotors Merger is announced...
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📰︎ r/CCIV
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📅︎ Feb 01 2021
🚨︎ report
Lucid CEO just spoke on CNBC. He said he couldn’t confirm nor deny the $CCIV rumors but imo his body language screams MERGER is a GO 👀 Watch the full interview here along with price action (screenrecorded)😊 v.redd.it/2cfcivoz9of61
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📰︎ r/CCIV
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👤︎ u/91baby
📅︎ Feb 05 2021
🚨︎ report
If confirmed, CCIV will be the best performing pre-merger SPAC up until close of deal, prove me wrong

SBE and QS (KCAC) were notable ones, but CCIV must head north of $50 if it’s trading at $23 on a rumor. With decent probably, if confirmed, could be the best performing pre-merger SPAC of all time. Prove me wrong

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📰︎ r/SPACs
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📅︎ Jan 23 2021
🚨︎ report
Reddit traders please don't treat "tlry" like a pump and dump stock. This is not amc or gamestop. If the tlry-apha merger goes through, then Tilray has potential to become one of the largest cannabis producers in the world. Treat it like a investment.
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📰︎ r/TLRY
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📅︎ Feb 11 2021
🚨︎ report
GIK Merger Date to be announced soon
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📰︎ r/SPACs
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📅︎ Jan 26 2021
🚨︎ report
Tops Markets announces merger with Price Chopper wkbw.com/news/local-news/…
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📰︎ r/Buffalo
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👤︎ u/44problems
📅︎ Feb 08 2021
🚨︎ report
Fiat Chrysler, Peugeot shareholders approve merger apnews.com/article/europe…
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📰︎ r/cars
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📅︎ Jan 04 2021
🚨︎ report
$TLRY and $APHA Merger Arbitrage

Currently Tilray and Aphria are being mispriced by the market assuming a deal goes through. I see the deal as very likely to happen. The conversion rate for Aphria shares into Tilray shares is 0.8381 which means for every Aphria share you own you get .8381 shares of Tilray. Right now, Tilray is trading around $63 per share. This means that theoretically Aphria should be worth around $52 at the close of the deal. Currently Aphria is trading at a 50% discount. Is the market assuming the deal won’t go through? Is Tilray only going up because of a short squeeze? Seems like a good opportunity for a pair trade at this crazy discount.

The deal is expected to close around March/April

Edit: You can view the current ratio here: https://www.tradingview.com/chart/APHA/Z4RZgZmH-Merger-Arbitrage/

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👤︎ u/rblayzor
📅︎ Feb 10 2021
🚨︎ report
Shaq, Lebron James, & former TikTok CEOs SPAC announce $3B merger with Beachbody

Some people involved with this (which is honestly a big part of why I'm so excited):

  • Shaq
  • Kevin Mayer, TikTok's former CEO,
  • Lebron James
  • Arnold Schwarzenegger
  • Tom Staggs, former Disney CFO & COO

The announcement just came out. Full version.

Here are the highlights:

"Fitness-and-nutrition business the Beachbody Company Group LLC plans to merge with a blank-check company affiliated with former TikTok Chief Executive Kevin Mayer in a deal that values the combined company at nearly $3 billion."

As part of the deal, Myx Fitness LLC, an at-home connected cycling provider, will become part of The Beachbody Company.

Beachbody is expected to generate more than $1.1 billion of revenue this year.

"Beachbody said it plans to use the capital to expand its sales and digital marketing efforts and to enter new geographies"

Other awesome things about FRX:

My Due Diligence:

The company is diversified between 3 separate companies, each with complementary but different offerings. The fitness offering, I think, pairs really well with their roster on the team which (as covered above) is highly experienced in sports and media.

Peloton is due for a competitor. It's a great platform but its not the solution EVERYONE needs. MYX Fitness' products offer added choice to a marketplace that is foaming at the mouth for more options.

The company has been around for over 20 years which is just a nice reassurance

Because of how the deal is structured, it appears the company will now be, more than ever, able to expand via acquisitions (they actually mention this in the article) and a HEAVY digital marketing spend.

Ticker: FRX (for now)

More info: MarketWatch Coverage

👍︎ 69
📰︎ r/investing
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👤︎ u/yarnbelly
📅︎ Feb 10 2021
🚨︎ report

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