NVAX Part II: Outlook Beyond the Fortnight

I tried to tell you all a week ago what was coming. I had my first 6 figure day in the market on Friday when NVAX went from 134 to 235 overnight after reporting great efficacy data. My weeklies were up 9000%, it was incredible. I want to send a thank you to u/Upstairs_Speech for his posts in the past, I would not have thought of the trade if it was not for him.

Now before you all tell me "I wish I saw this before the stock went up 70%" let me explain to you why this is still early innings. Sure, this might not be as sexy of a trade as round 1 was, but now that data concerns are off the table this thesis has a lot less risk. This one is more of a low risk, high growth play as opposed to a get rich quick one.

Let's do a mental exercise:

The day is December 31, 2020, everyone is excited to be moving on to 2021. NVAX share price hovers at $110, a $7B market cap awaiting UK phase 3 efficacy data. There are real concerns as to whether NVAX actually has a vaccine that works given their prior 30 years of failures. The market prices this risk accordingly and NVAX's market cap is only 17% that of MRNA.

Fast forward 4 weeks. NVAX has released data on 20,000 patients, shows the highest efficacy of any vaccine against wild type COVID. NVAX shows strong efficacy against UK strain which no one else has. They show that the South Africa strain is a real concern with efficacy at 60%, and there is 0 reason to believe any vaccine will perform better against that strain.

And I can't overstate this part enough, the really important detail here is that NVAX is the only protein vaccine on the horizon. The only other protein vaccine coming any time soon is MAYBE GSK/Sanofi and they already showed terrible data. They blamed it on dosing but there are major question marks there and they are delayed 6 months minimum. The reason protein vaccines are important is because they are the only ones that can offer coverage against multiple strains in a single shot. This is how the flu shot is done (which NVAX just passed phase 3 of in March). The flu shot is a protein vaccine that covers 4 strains in a single shot. What is becoming very clear is that we are going to need the same for COVID. The future of COVID vaccines is that in your annual shot you get coverage against wild type, SA strain and Brazil strain for example. NVAX is the only company that can do this right now.

... keep reading on reddit ➑

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My mom said I can play fortnight on youre ipAd ☹️πŸ₯΅
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Coaching Carousel Fortnight: A Battle Royale
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It's "Flossing" from Fortnight. Think he broke it? v.redd.it/m3bf3djk6kh61
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ASX:BD1 - another great announcemnt. - just put in last fortnight's pay into it haha.

https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02341163-6A1020239?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4

https://preview.redd.it/5pbu1261xih61.png?width=883&format=png&auto=webp&s=5dd4db046399ae14408d43543f773179d9ce672a

Will see if I get any as the depth is filling/rising quickly on the buy side.

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Fun fact β€œfortnight” = 2 weeks
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[@OfficialFPL] Illan Meslier has registered exactly the same number of clean sheets (7) and save points (22) as Nick Pope this season Both goalkeepers have Double Gameweeks coming up in the next fortnight.
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gunner from fortnight v.redd.it/g43asi6uhbh61
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Exclusive: London will be overwhelmed by covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS England briefing hsj.co.uk/acute-care/excl…
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London will be overwhelmed by covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS England briefing hsj.co.uk/acute-care/excl…
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The main difference between the fortnight and Minecraft community.

Other than being less toxic, if you see someone who can god bridge in bed wars or something, people go "holy cow he can god bridge he's good!" and not "ha he godbridges he has no life imagine god bridging go outside"

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Funny Fortnight | Channel 4 (2012) Jessica Hynes, Simon Pegg, Jimmy Carr, Alan Carr, Noel Fielding, Jon Richardson, Sally Phillips, Charlie Brooker, Greg Davies, Matt Berry, and More! youtube.com/watch?v=udLRe…
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Wth(heck) spunch blob new fortnight skin corn(🌽)firmed!!1!1! v.redd.it/yn2e7va4nlg61
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Community members knowing NWI is going to cancel these fortnight skins over backlash:
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NVAX: A Fortnight, Bottlenecks, and IMMINENT Efficacy Data (urgent)

The point of this post is to describe why I think Novavax ($NVAX) will be releasing efficacy data in the next week and explain why I have decided to buy weekly options until data comes out for the biggest possible return.

tl;dr:

  1. Data is coming in the next week.
  2. IV on options expiring next week is going to go through the roof on Friday afternoon.
  3. High likelihood of good data.
  4. Buy now.

For quick context, as of today NVAX will be the 4th COVID vaccine to release Phase 3 efficacy data, though they have already secured the most government contracts. Currently, Novavax is in a phase 2B trial in South Africa, a phase 3 trial in the UK and a phase 3 trial in US/Mexico. The release of South Africa and UK efficacy data is imminent (see reasons why I think data will be released next week below). This data is a significant catalyst as, up until this point, no efficacy data has been released from NVAX, other than non-human primates (which was best in class relative to competing vaccines).

As for what that data will entail, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic that I will not get into in this post. I am a medical student and am more than happy to discuss further if needed, but for starters I recommend reading the 4 posts by u/Upstairs_Speech on why NVAX is deeply undervalued and has a high chance of success. The only thing I would add to their posts is the robust antibody response (significantly higher than MRNA and PFE) after 6 months, as shown on slide 17 of their JPM presentation two weeks ago, which as a result has gotten many immunologists excited.

We have seen the share price impact of released efficacy data before. For reference, Pfizer added $15B to their market cap after release of efficacy data in November and Moderna doubled its market cap in November (from 30 to 60B). NVAX has a market cap currently of $8B (16% that of Moderna) - and that includes the valuation for a separate influenza vaccine that completed Phase 3 in March 2020. I think a 40+% immediate increase is reasonable following good data and I think NVAX will continue to grow to be multiples higher than current levels in a few months. A 40% increase from current levels would take the share price to $175 which would net a 10x or greater return. NVAX hit $190 share price last year after the primate data, it could certainly go higher than 175.

Here are

... keep reading on reddit ➑

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London will be overwhelmed by covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS England briefing hsj.co.uk/acute-care/excl…
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Fortnight Dance
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BREAKING: Hong Kong sports venues, cinemas, gov’t services to resume next Thur, as 4th wave of Covid-19 subsides// Staff at restaurants will need to be tested every fortnight, and diners will need to use the government β€œLeaveHomeSafe” app to check in. hongkongfp.com/2021/02/10…
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πŸ“…︎ Feb 10
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Anyone else notice the G.I. Joe x Fortnight Collaboration Snake Eyes? Just popped up on pulse for Pre-Order. Thoughts?
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πŸ“…︎ Jan 31
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Thanks to my local archery shop/sponsor for lending this to me for two weeks. Sadly I see an expensive payment in a fortnight on the cards. reddit.com/gallery/kt4bbl
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Exclusive: London will be overwhelmed by covid in a fortnight says leaked NHS England briefing hsj.co.uk/acute-care/excl…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/Totally_Northern
πŸ“…︎ Jan 06
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Revised 'Living with Covid' plan due in a fortnight rte.ie/news/coronavirus/2…
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I always had a bad feeling about fortnight, is it possible to get their subreddit banned?
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πŸ“…︎ Jan 20
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This neighbour’s chicken has befriended me. She lost her partner chook last week to old age, and I lost my little cat a fortnight ago to cancer. Visits everyday now
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1 in 77 people in Ireland have tested positive in last fortnight. 1 in 104 people in last week twitter.com/gavreilly/sta…
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anime fortnights
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Pangong Tso disengagement may be over in just a fortnight | India News - Times of India timesofindia.indiatimes.c…
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πŸ“…︎ Feb 12
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She really changed the pewdiepie cake to fortnight v.redd.it/2nwyep09dng61
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I would suck her thigh meat for a fortnight. reddit.com/gallery/kvles6
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Getting two bike punctures in the space of a fortnight because people apparently can't tell the difference between a bottle bank and a path
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Fortnight gets a ton of slack for being a "bad game" but I have to give it to the dev's they are keeping that game alive

I personally don't play it but I always see that they have some sort of awesome and fun looking events going on. The devs are keeping that game fresh and fun for players, something that seems to be a hard thing to do in most games. Hate it or love it fortnight looks like a fun game to play.

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πŸ“…︎ Dec 03 2020
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Minecraft vs fortnight part 3: revenge of the dogo's
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πŸ“…︎ Sep 20 2020
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fortnight
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What is Fortnight?

I realize this can be considered a really dumb question but I’ve never heard anyone use this term until reading posts or comments here. I’m in the U.S so is it something commonly used in other countries or areas of U.S? If it means every other day/week why not say Biweekly or something like that? I’m an air head sometimes I know this... but I’m just wondering. πŸ€”

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time to play fortnight
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Hauliers to avoid Channel for a fortnight amid Brexit paperwork fears thetimes.co.uk/edition/ne…
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Please guys stop talking about reddit really guys plese its instagram spell it out with me i n s ta g ram instagram guys also tik tok like the sound a clock makes guys and for tnight too nooo stop why is reddit being talked about no guys can i introduce you to fortnight instead please its a game whe
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I require a bit of handwriting practice... 742 has been sitting new in the box for a fortnight now as I couldn’t decide what colour ink to put in it. Should be a fun little pen.
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πŸ“…︎ Jan 26
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I don't think this is grammar. This person thought "fortnight" was referring to the game.
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πŸ‘€︎ u/skylarkresa220
πŸ“…︎ Feb 10
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[WP] "The Sandwich War has been raging for too long, brother. I am tired. Those Nutella heathens give us no quarter, and the Jam Legion has captured too many of our best warriors. I'm afraid the rest of the Peanutbutter Brigade will succumb in the next fortnight, unless we surrender ourselves."
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πŸ‘€︎ u/Amicus-Regis
πŸ“…︎ Jan 20
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NQTs: How many lessons do you teach a fortnight, & roughly how many overlap (teaching same year groups the same topics)?

PGCE here & just wondering. I get that, even when there is overlap, you have to tweak it to the level of the class.

Also, I'm interested to know how long your lessons are. I just assumed that most schools have 1-hr lessons, but since joining this sub, I see some people have 100-minute lessons.

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πŸ‘€︎ u/BoisDeVincennes
πŸ“…︎ Feb 03
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I Currently invest $20 per fortnight in Sharsies. I know its not a lot but I set up an automatic payment just to be consistent, currently have around $1300 in my portfolio and i just pick random companies or funds to invest in. What would be a better strategy and is Hatch better for me?
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🚨 LABOUR LEAD for the the first time since Boris Johnson became PM 🚨 Latest @OpiniumResearch poll of @ObserverUK: LAB 42% (+3) CON 39% (-3) LD 5% (-1) Changes from fortnight ago. Poll conducted online among 2,002 people, Sept 23-25. twitter.com/michaelsavage…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/bennzo1238
πŸ“…︎ Sep 26 2020
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Boring post alert - Both my mum and grandma have been given appointments for their vaccine within the next fortnight! (Mum has volunteered and completed her training to administer vaccine and Grandma is in her late eighties post triple heart bypass)

My grandma has been alone for nearly the entire pandemic, and has found it incredibly hard. With her being vaccinated I’m hopeful she’ll start to get her life back, her recovery has been insanely long and hard, so coupled with this, it’s been a shot show for her.

I just needed to tell someone. I’m in tears I’m so happy and relieved.

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πŸ‘€︎ u/MacavityFam
πŸ“…︎ Dec 24 2020
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Nigel Farage has been reported to UK police after apparently visiting a pub less than a fortnight after a trip to a Donald Trump rally in the United States. Anyone returning from overseas is required supposed to self-isolate for 14 days under current quarantine laws, with few exceptions. independent.co.uk/news/uk…
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πŸ‘€︎ u/ManiaforBeatles
πŸ“…︎ Jul 04 2020
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My mum passed away a fortnight ago and I’m spiralling worse into depression as each day passes, verging on suicidal ideation. AMA

I haven’t slept in like 3/4 days (I lose count) so replies may be stupid late. I will get back to everyone.

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πŸ“…︎ Dec 30 2020
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Not being sure whether you should be grumpy about the fact that you’re only expected to get sleet at best over the next few days, or happy that at least the roads won’t be impassable for the next fortnight.
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πŸ“…︎ Feb 06
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Do you ever use the word fortnight when referring to a two week period?
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