Has any media outlet or pollster made an analysis of the early voter turnout and it’s implications for the projected winning candidate?
We’ve already seen a massive turnout, and everything points to a record high. In Texas for example: over 80% of the amount of votes in 2016 has already been cast.
Polls predicted 50% of democrats expected to vote early, whilst 25% of republicans would vote early. So people expected to see a significant lead of the democratic vote, but the republicans would do a final sprint.
I however do not really see this phenomenon if I look at the early voting results.
What i expected to see is what we see in Pennsylvania: almost 30% of the 2016 votes are cast, and this is divided 69% to 21% for the democrats and republicans respectively; with 8% registered independent. Assuming a slight lead for Biden in the final outcome this is in line with the expected 50% early voting for the dems and 25% for the republicans.
But if we take a look at MI or NC we see something different. In Michigan 48% of the 2016 votes are cast with a 42,7/38,3 (d/r) division (19,0 independent). And in NC 71% of 2016 votes are cast with a 33/30 division (29% independent).
In GA 71% of 2016 turnout is cast, with 43/49 (d/r) (6% independent) meaning Trump would have a big lead if people vote according to affiliation if I am not mistaken?
Texas is an outlier, with already 84% of the 2016 turnout. But in this state the republicans lead with 51,8 to 38,8 (9,4% independent). Could this state even turn blue anymore?
Does this mean the expectation that dems would vote early more often isn’t true? Or should we still expect a final run of republican voters which would indicate that Biden is actually behind?
Disclaimer: I am aware that registered affiliation doesn’t mean that they also vote that way but that goes both ways.
Calcasieu Parish:
Total Early Votes - 46,659
Democrat - 18,397
Republican - 19,433
Other - 8,829
State Totals:
Total Early Votes - 967,751
Democrat - 426,992
Republican - 362,072
Other - 178,687
Total Registered Voters in Calcasieu - 129,679;
Total Registered Voters in Louisiana - 3,054, 334
At the end of early voting, Calcasieu had a 35% voter turnout. In 2016, a total of 20,161 voted early in the Parish. We have doubled that number with a decline in total registered voters from 130,061 in the last presidential election.
Source - https://www.sos.la.gov
I'm almost positive that North Carolina began early voting this week, and I'm just curious if anyone knows what the results are so far?
Just curious as the results have to be stored somewhere and how are the results safeguarded against a snooping employee or a bribed IT person.
